Estimation and spatial interpolation of rainfall intensity distribution from the effective rate of precipitation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ming Li  Quanxi Shao  Luigi Renzullo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(1):117-130

Great emphasis is being placed on the use of rainfall intensity data at short time intervals to accurately model the dynamics of modern cropping systems, runoff, erosion and pollutant transport. However, rainfall data are often readily available at more aggregated level of time scale and measurements of rainfall intensity at higher resolution are available only at limited stations. A distribution approach is a good compromise between fine-scale (e.g. sub-daily) models and coarse-scale (e.g. daily) rainfall data, because the use of rainfall intensity distribution could substantially improve hydrological models. In the distribution approach, the cumulative distribution function of rainfall intensity is employed to represent the effect of the within-day temporal variability of rainfall and a disaggregation model (i.e. a model disaggregates time series into sets of higher solution) is used to estimate distribution parameters from the daily average effective precipitation. Scaling problems in hydrologic applications often occur at both space and time dimensions and temporal scaling effects on hydrologic responses may exhibit great spatial variability. Transferring disaggregation model parameter values from one station to an arbitrary position is prone to error, thus a satisfactory alternative is to employ spatial interpolation between stations. This study investigates the spatial interpolation of the probability-based disaggregation model. Rainfall intensity observations are represented as a two-parameter lognormal distribution and methods are developed to estimate distribution parameters from either high-resolution rainfall data or coarse-scale precipitation information such as effective intensity rates. Model parameters are spatially interpolated by kriging to obtain the rainfall intensity distribution when only daily totals are available. The method was applied to 56 pluviometer stations in Western Australia. Two goodness-of-fit statistics were used to evaluate the skill—daily and quantile coefficient of efficiency between simulations and observations. Simulations based on cross-validation show that kriging performed better than other two spatial interpolation approaches (B-splines and thin-plate splines).  相似文献   

Discussion on the Abnormally Low Active Fault Slip Rate of the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan Earthquake     

Fu Zhengxiang  Lü Xiaojian  Jin Xueshen  Dai Yinghu  Shao Huicheng  Hao Ping 《中国地震研究》2010,24(3):272-280

Based on the collection of active fault slip rate data of large intra-continental shallow thrust earthquakes occurring in the triangular seismic region of the East Asia continent,a preliminary analysis has been performed with results showing that the Wenchuan,Sichuan, China earthquake ( MS = 8. 0) of May 12,2008 occurred on the Longmenshan Mountain active fault with an abnormally low slip rate.  相似文献   

加强生态环境保护 促进湛江珍珠养殖业持续发展     

梁飞龙  邓陈茂  符韶 《广东海洋大学学报》2010,30(5)

为促进湛江珍珠养殖业的持续发展,各级政府和海域管理部门应认真贯彻执行国家有关海域管理的法律法规,加强海域环境保护的宣传教育工作,提高养殖者的环境保护意识。珍珠养殖者要创新养殖方式,拓展新的养殖空间,尊重自然规律,自觉保护海洋生态环境,以解决湛江珍珠养殖业存在的养殖海域无证使用、无度开发、生态功能丧失等问题。  相似文献   

中国近千年石笋-树轮集成温度记录   总被引：10，自引：3，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

谭明  邵雪梅  刘晓宏  蔡炳贵 《气候变化研究进展》2006,2(3):113-116

分析北京石笋年层和祁连山树轮标准化指数及二者的合成指数与气候的关系,探索对响应不同季节温度变化的不同代用指标进行集成的方法。根据集成序列与中国大区域器测资料的相关计算,建立了年分辨率的跨区域千年温度序列。讨论了中国近千年气温变化的一些特点,发现近千年来年代际温度变化低谷与几个重要的太阳活动极小期非常吻合,大区域平均气候在Sporer Minimum期间响应太阳的突然"冷却",气温下降的速率和幅度比Maunder Minimum期间更为显著。  相似文献   

自然地理要素空间插值的几个问题   总被引：77，自引：8，他引：69  

朱会义  刘述林  贾绍凤 《地理研究》2004,23(4):425-432

资源管理、灾害管理、生态环境治理以及全球变化研究的需要强化了部分自然地理要素空间插值研究的重要性。这些要素空间插值的核心是建立充分逼近要素空间分布特征的函数方程。对于给定的区域与要素样本值 ,插值函数可以有多种模型形式。各类模型的精度受其理论基础、模型算法、时空尺度效应、样本数据属性等因素的综合影响。通过对国际主要插值研究成果进行分析 ,文章认为各类模型插值精度的差异缘于模型对插值要素空间变异性与空间相关性的反映 ,具体应用中 ,只有对已知样本数据进行变异性与相关性分析才能选出适当的插值方法。  相似文献   

中国水土保持研究回顾   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张兴昌  邵明安  李世清  Peng Keshan 《地理学报(英文版)》2004,14(3):259-274

The preservation and sustainable development of soil and water resources is one of the basic principles for the development of China. Throughout the course of history, all the social improvement and economic development are deeply concerned with soil loss and ecological environmental protection. It is now a common sense that soil and water conservation is the safety insurance for national ecology and its development. For the past long period of time, soil and water loss has been recognized as “the No. 1 killer“ to the ecological environment. The nation is on the stage of the critical conditions for its development. China has massive mountain and upland area with complicated geological conditions and accelerated human destruction and serious soil and water loss.Based on rich historical documents, renovating experience and detailed analysis of the data collected in field experiments and field surveys for soil and water conservation, this paper aims to review the general characteristics of soil and water loss, to explore the relationship between soil and water conservation and sustainable economic development, and to provide relevant strategies for soil and water conservation in China.  相似文献   

中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力时空特征模拟   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

陶波  李克让  邵雪梅  CAO Mingkui 《地理学报(英文版)》2003,13(2):163-171

In this paper,we use CEVSA,a process-based model,which has been validated on regional and global scales,to explore the temporal and spatial patterns of Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and its responses to interannual Climate fluctuations in China‘‘‘‘‘‘‘‘s terrestrial ecosystems over the period 1981-1998,The estimated results suggest that ,in this study period,the averaged annual total NPP is about 3.09 Gt C/yr^-1 and average NPP is about 342 g C/m^2,The results also showed that the precipitaion was the key factor determining the spsatial distribution and temporal trends of NPP. Temporally,the total NPP exhibited a slowly increasing trend.In some ENSO years( e.g.1982,1986,1997)NPP decreased clearly compared to the previous year,but the relationship between ENSO and NPP is decreased clearly compared to the previous year,but the relationship between ENSO and NPP is complex due to the integrated effects of monsoons and regional differentiation. Spatially,the relatively high NPP occurred at the middle high latitudes,the low latitudes and the lower appeared at the middle latitudes,On national scale,precipitaion is the key conntro factor on NPP variations and there exists a weak correlation between NP and temperature ,but regional responses are greatly different.  相似文献   

青藏铁路沿线多年冻土区地温场变化规律   总被引：19，自引：6，他引：13  

潘卫东  余绍水  贾海锋  刘登科 《冰川冻土》2002,24(6):774-779

青藏铁路通过约550km的多年冻土区,统计和分析青藏高原多年冻土分布区主要气象台站的资料可以看出,近30a来高原多年冻土区的气候变化总的趋势是向着气温升高的方向发展的,气温的变化对多年冻土热状态的扰动主要表现在地温场的变化上.30多年来高原气温升高0.45℃左右,并引起冻土地温平均升高了0.2～0.3℃.分析青藏铁路通过的多年冻土地区典型地段测温孔资料,发现多年来气候转暖已经使冻土上部(20m以上)地温明显升高,影响深度已经波及到了40m.  相似文献   

胜坨油田坨28断块沙河街组二段储层非均质性定量研究   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  

周建林  刘静  杨少春 《高校地质学报》2002,8(4):437-445

运用模糊数学方法计算非均质综合指数和计算渗透率非均质参数,对胜坨油田坨28断块沙河街组二段储层的非均质性进行了定量研究。结果表明：储层的层间,层内和平面非均质性强,随着开发注水的深入进行,非均质性有减弱趋势,但减弱幅度不大;各小层及其韵律层在不同开发时期的非均质程度有明显的差异。沉积微相控制储层非均质程度;成岩作用使非均质性复杂化;注采井网不完善,加剧了非均质性的差异性。研究成果在剩余油挖潜的应用中起到重要作用。  相似文献   

复杂应力路径下流体饱和砂岩本构模型     

田斌  卢应发  邵建富 《岩土力学》2007,28(Z1):58-62

高孔隙率砂岩在不同围压及被不同流体（水及油）饱和时表现出不同的应力-应变特性及不同的破坏过程。复杂应力路径下油和水饱和砂岩的力学试验表明,存在某一临界围压,随着围压的增加,饱和砂岩从以压剪破坏为主,逐渐转变为以孔隙坍塌破坏为主的破坏机制。通过力学试验结果的分析,以两种破坏理论对油和水饱和砂岩的破坏特征进行了力学解释,并应用经典塑性力学的盖帽模型建立了相应的本构模型,应用非线性有限元法进行了数值验证,研究结果表明,提出的模型与试验资料吻合良好,能较好地模拟复杂应力路径下油和水饱和砂岩的破坏机制及模拟注水采油引起的砂岩附加沉降。  相似文献